Assets Start To Look Risky

This year's heady bout of risk aversion on financial markets has ratcheted up demand for gold, U.S. Treasuries and the Swiss franc to levels that suggest they may no longer be the "safe havens" they are billed as.
Some investors see all three as vulnerable to a sharp selloff should the global economic environment improve over the coming months, or simply because prices are too high in the absence of outright financial catastrophe.

"A safe asset is something that is going to be safe across economic environments," said William De Vijlder, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Investment Partners. "It means you'd better make sure your forecast is right."
There are already signs the demand froth is coming off, at least in gold and the Swiss franc.
All three safe havens highlighted have distinct features, so losses from renewed demand for riskier assets would not hit each equally. Gold, for one, might fare better given that underlying demand for the metal is not all based on risk aversion.
But none are "safe" in all circumstances, and their remarkable rises this year may now pose some risk for those holding them.
Graphic on "Safe havens"
Ten-year U.S. Treasuries recently traded with yields below 2 percent -- their lowest in generations -- and, according to Merrill Lynch data, have returned some 11 percent over the summer.
The Swiss franc has risen by 15.3 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively, to record highs against the dollar and euro, prompting moves from the Swiss National Bank to rein its currency in.
Perhaps most spectacularly, gold has risen as much as 33 percent, taking it to just below $2,000 an ounce -- a startling performance on top of a decade-long rally that has seen the metal's price rise more than 600 percent.
In the last few days, however, there has been a sharp selloff -- nothing really to dent the asset's major gains, but a reminder of how quickly heady gains can run out of steam.
"It is not difficult to believe that gold could correct a reasonably good amount," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at London & Capital, adding that this would not necessarily undermine its long-term bullish trend.
DIFFERENT RISKS
Of the three assets benefiting richly from the slowing global economy, lower interest rates and debt crises in the euro zone and elsewhere, gold is arguably the least vulnerable to a huge reversal.
It offers no yield or dividend and can rise and fall rapidly based on investor fear alone.
But the drivers behind its rise are diverse and it may hold up better than others when economic conditions change.
Demand has been bolstered by central banks buying the metal as part of their diversification of foreign reserves. Even more significant may be the buying of bars and coins by newly wealthy Asian consumers, notably those in China.
The World Gold Council estimates there was a roughly 25 percent rise in demand for gold from Chinese consumers between the second quarters of 2010 and 2011,
Gold is also not particularly subject to what BNP Paribas' De Vijlder calls the "feedback loop", which occurs when a significant price rise begins to affect economies and prompts policy changes by governments.
The same cannot be said for the Swiss franc, which has also wobbled recently courtesy of the SNB's moves to cap its gains.
The SNB has cut official rates to near zero and pumped out more money to lower the franc's value. It has also sold francs in the forwards market to drive rates lower and make it expensive to hold the currency.
This is only a part of what it could do, meaning investors will have to battle to protect gains -- something that detracts strongly from the concept of a "safe haven".
Charlie Morris, head of absolute returns at HSBC Global Asset Management, believes investors have been treating the Swiss franc as something that it is not.
"It is easy to forget that the Swissie is a relatively minor currency and not the global liquidity pool that it is cracked up to be," he said.
'POINTLESS AND DANGEROUS'?
U.S. Treasuries, meanwhile, are at the point where investing in them is only slightly more lucrative than putting money under the mattress.
They are supported, like gold, by outside-the-market factors such as Federal Reserve buying and huge inflows from China. Some of that will change as the U.S. economy improves or as Beijing diversifies.
Mainly, though, yields of around 0.2 percent for short paper and only 2 percent for long, offer little. It would not take much of an inflationary spike or economic rebound to prompt a rush to the exit.
"Treasuries are either pointless at the short end or dangerous at the long end," Morris said. "Either we have deflation and bonds deliver paltry yields ... or, more likely, inflation resurges and investors in bonds lose their shirts."

High Cholesterol

A daily dose of niacin, also known as vitamin B3, improves erectile function in men with high cholesterol, a new study has found.
The results show that the 80 men who took niacin and began the study with moderate or severe erectile dysfunction (ED) reported an improvement in their ability to maintain an erection.
The 80 men who took a placebo pill, who also began the study with only mild ED, did not have a change in symptoms, the study said.
In addition to ED, all 160 men also had high cholesterol and lipid levels.
"The exciting thing about this finding," said study author Dr. Chi-Fai Ng of The Chinese University of Hong Kong, "is that niacin is a very old drug and the safety of it is quite well-documented. Basically, it's just a vitamin, and so this would be a very simple way to improve erectile function."
The men taking niacin not only scored better on a self-reported test of erectile function; their lipid levels also improved.
For most patients, current ED drugs improve erectile function, but only during that brief time span.
"Niacin is much more convenient," Ng said. "You take it once a day, whenever you want, and you can have sex any time."
The niacin used in his study was formulated in slow-release pills, designed to seep slowly into the bloodstream over the course of a day. The men started with a daily dose of 500 milligrams (mg), to make sure they had no adverse side effects, then increased to 1,000 mg and then 1,500 mg.

Stop Love From Making

Falling in love makes otherwise smart and self-respecting people feel, and act, ridiculous. This is a fact. Whether it’s finding pathetic excuses to call again when he doesn’t call back right away, or scheming to run into her outside her office “by accident,” I don’t know anyone hasn’t, at least once, gone a bit bonkers for new love.

It’s not as if you don’t at least suspect, when it’s happening, that you’re being an idiot. But that doesn’t help you, because you tackle your idiocy from the wrong end – you try, by sheer force of will, to purge yourself of your idiotic impulses. This never, ever works. Which is why, despite swearing to yourself and your friends that you are going to play it cool this time, you’ll still end up sneaking off to the bathroom to check your messages again, for the twentieth time that day. You need a better approach.
The fact of the matter is, you can’t make yourself stop wanting to do dumb things when you have fallen hard for someone, any more than you can make yourself stop wanting cheesecake, or a cigarette, or a martini, or anything else that tempts you. Take a moment to let that sink in, because it’s really important. I’ll wait.
Now, the good news is that you can stop actually doing the things that make you look and feel like an idiot, despite the fact that you really want to do them, if you use the right strategy. You can stop the compulsive voicemail and email-checking, the constant texting, and the Facebook stalking. You can stop yourself from Googling his name (again). You can shut out all those premature thoughts of what your wedding will be like, and what you’ll name your children. And when you’re wondering on your second date if she has fallen in love with you yet, you can stop yourself from actually asking her.
The solution begins with embracing the idea that dating is like dieting. Nobody loses weight by deciding that they just won’t want calorie-rich food anymore. You can’t talk yourself out of wanting french fries. And if you’re counting on the sheer force will to see you through when you feel tempted, you’re going to end up eating a lot of french fries.
The next step is to do some if-then planning. Over a hundred scientific studies - on everything from diet and exercise to curbing spending and quitting smoking - have shown that deciding in advance how you will handle your impulses (e.g., “If I am hungry and want a snack, then I will choose a healthy option like fruit or veggies,” “If I want to smoke, then I’ll step outside and take a deep breath,”) will double or triple your chances for success.
The key to a successful plan involves deciding what you will do instead. So when you are taken by the desire to try to track him down on Facebook or Foursquare, or to leave the “not sure if you got my last message” message on her answering machine, what more productive, non-creepy behavior will you replace it with? My mother once giving me some excellent advice about a boyfriend I was obsessing over. “If you feel like calling him,” she said, “then call me.” You don’t have to call your mother when love messes with your head, but having some sort of plan in place is essential.
If-then plans are simple, easy to create, and extraordinarily effective when it comes to resisting temptation, edible or otherwise. Just taking a moment to decide, in advance, how you will handle your less attractive impulses could mean the difference between finding Mr. Right, and seriously freaking him out.